Based on Corona virus ability to stay undetected (with no symptoms) while keep spreading is going to keep this virus alive for a long time to come. Let that sink for a min
As we dont have a cure yet, social distancing, can only slow down its spread but cant eradicate it completely. If social distancing sounds too silly for you, check this video to understand how effective it is.
So its not IF but WHEN , one is going to be infected.
By practicing social distancing, we are effectively
buying more time and protecting someone vulnerable, could be our loved one.
During this time, lets hope
- More people dont get infected, crushing Medical infrastructure
- Virus dont mutate into some other form
- Get a cure to the virus or a vaccine (with mild virus) to train our immune system.
--------------------------------------------------
On consequences
Of those infected,
elderly and folks with weak immune system are most at life risk. Remaining
others will get recovered. "does recovered will get Re-infected again?"
is million dollar question that gong to set course for our future.
Medical advancements
in the last century, improved life expectancy significantly. But this virus
appears to reset that. Could potentially wipe out lot of elderly worldwide..
Out of OECD countries, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Korea,
Italy, Poland, Germany have more aging population and could see more turmoil.
Refer :
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/health_glance-2017-73-en.pdfOn Economic Impact
Corona virus not
deadly on its own to cause a economic impact. There are more people dying due
to flu every year. But the social restrictions, we put in place are wrecking
havoc. Its directly impacting economic activity and supply chains.
Stock markets are falling due to dampened economic activity.
Unless otherwise every individual is tested, we cant rule out another person
getting infected and then starting the quarantine cycle. Re-Infection rate is
going to play a crucial role here.
Based on this, I dont think, markets bottom out yet.
So far central banks,
announcing various stimulus packages. Essentially it makes access to money much
cheaper. Even before Corona virus, Interest rates are historically low. I dont
see liquidity as an issue here. But these packages certainly save hard hit sectors
and industries to take more cheap loans and keep their shop running and dont
resort to any lay off. Lay offs will trigger down ward spiral and impact other
sectors too. But how long currently impacted sectors (transportation,
entertainment) can run with out actual demand for Goods or Service from public,
should be watched.
Bailing out
corporations historically helped rich getting richer only. May be its time to
try "Universal basic income" while containing inflation.Its going to
be a challenge for central banks and Govts. Its vital how the biggest world
economies (US, China, Japan, Germany, India, France, UK, Italy, Brazil and
Canada) respond or react to these events.
With out safety net,
Currently those practicing social distancing to avoid infection and those
infected with mild symptoms are going to venture out to continue their life
soon. There are too many economic implications to resist this temptation. These
restrictions wont last long.
Governments, private enterprises and common people need to make
a crucial decision of choosing between individual financial needs or social
welfare of their community.
Lets hope, Social welfare will prevail.
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Update 4/6
As anticipated Lock downs arent a viable solution for long.
Across the worlds, all Govt feel pressure to lift restrictions.
Below is a strategy addressing it
End Goal : No Active cases of people infected
with COVID19 or everyone in the community are Recovered
Stage 0
A new infectious
virus is identified
Stage 1
No known infection
in the community (Measure : first case
reported date)
All the travel from
outside to inside the community is restricted (Measure
: data of restrictions)
All incoming people
are screened for virus infection and quarantined immediately (Measure : Screening / Testing strategy)
Stage 2 : Contact
tracing
People travel from
outside the community, found to be Virus infected later on.
Contact tracing
begins. All the people in contact with infected persons are quarantined for
testing.
Contact tracing goes
for people of indirect contact
Restrictions put in
places where the infected person may have travelled
Stage 3 : Isolation
First case of
community spread of virus identified in the community
Except essential
services, Entire community put in lock down to slow down virus spread in the
community
Open up wide spread
testing and contact tracing . Economy crumbles
Stage 4 : Economic relief
As societies are
nonfunctional under lock down, need for lifting lock down arises.
Communities are
broken down into small entities like cities, villages etc.,
Idea is to identify
communities that have no known infections and remove restrictions on people in
those communities while restricting travel between the communities
It essentially moves
some communities to Stage 0 and gives Govt flexibility to make them operational, while communities which are in advanced stage to get mitigated.
This also helps in rerouting medical resources.
Here is a graph understanding it.
First things first.. Test Test Test
Here is the graph, showing how testings is going on around the world
-- I will update my thoughts as they evolve. After all, if everything happens as we think, whats the fun
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