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My Thoughts on Corona virus #COVID19


Based on Corona virus ability to stay undetected (with no symptoms) while keep spreading is going to keep this virus alive for a long time to come. Let that sink for a min

 As we dont have a cure yet, social distancing, can only slow down its spread but cant eradicate it completely. If social distancing sounds too silly for you, check this video to understand how effective it is.


So its not IF but WHEN , one is going to be infected.
By practicing social distancing, we are effectively buying more time and protecting someone vulnerable, could be our loved one.
During this time, lets hope
  • More people dont get infected, crushing Medical infrastructure
  • Virus dont mutate into some other form
  • Get a cure to the virus or a vaccine (with mild virus) to train our immune system.


--------------------------------------------------

On consequences


Of those infected, elderly and folks with weak immune system are most at life risk. Remaining others will get recovered. "does recovered will get Re-infected again?" is million dollar question that gong to set course for our future.

Medical advancements in the last century, improved life expectancy significantly. But this virus appears to reset that. Could potentially wipe out lot of elderly worldwide..

 Out of OECD countries, Japan, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Korea, Italy, Poland, Germany have more aging population and could see more turmoil.
Refer : https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/health_glance-2017-73-en.pdf


On Economic Impact

Corona virus not deadly on its own to cause a economic impact. There are more people dying due to flu every year. But the social restrictions, we put in place are wrecking havoc. Its directly impacting economic activity and supply chains.


Stock markets are falling due to dampened economic activity. Unless otherwise every individual is tested, we cant rule out another person getting infected and then starting the quarantine cycle. Re-Infection rate is going to play a crucial role here.
Based on this, I dont think, markets bottom out yet.

So far central banks, announcing various stimulus packages. Essentially it makes access to money much cheaper. Even before Corona virus, Interest rates are historically low. I dont see liquidity as an issue here. But these packages certainly save hard hit sectors and industries to take more cheap loans and keep their shop running and dont resort to any lay off. Lay offs will trigger down ward spiral and impact other sectors too. But how long currently impacted sectors (transportation, entertainment) can run with out actual demand for Goods or Service from public, should be watched.

Bailing out corporations historically helped rich getting richer only. May be its time to try "Universal basic income" while containing inflation.Its going to be a challenge for central banks and Govts. Its vital how the biggest world economies (US, China, Japan, Germany, India, France, UK, Italy, Brazil and Canada) respond or react to these events.

With out safety net, Currently those practicing social distancing to avoid infection and those infected with mild symptoms are going to venture out to continue their life soon. There are too many economic implications to resist this temptation. These restrictions wont last long.


Governments, private enterprises and common people need to make a crucial decision of choosing between individual financial needs or social welfare of their community.
Lets hope, Social welfare will prevail.

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Update 4/6

As anticipated Lock downs arent a viable solution for long.
Across the worlds, all Govt feel pressure to lift restrictions. 
Below is a strategy addressing it

End Goal : No Active cases of people infected with COVID19 or everyone in the community are Recovered

Stage 0

A new infectious virus is identified

Stage 1

No known infection in the community (Measure : first case reported date)
All the travel from outside to inside the community is restricted (Measure : data of restrictions)
All incoming people are screened for virus infection and quarantined immediately (Measure : Screening / Testing strategy)

Stage 2 : Contact tracing
People travel from outside the community, found to be Virus infected later on.
Contact tracing begins. All the people in contact with infected persons are quarantined for testing.
Contact tracing goes for people of indirect contact
Restrictions put in places where the infected person may have travelled

Stage 3 : Isolation

First case of community spread of virus identified in the community
Except essential services, Entire community put in lock down to slow down virus spread in the community
Open up wide spread testing and contact tracing . Economy crumbles

Stage 4 : Economic relief

As societies are nonfunctional under lock down, need for lifting lock down arises.
Communities are broken down into small entities like cities, villages etc.,
Idea is to identify communities that have no known infections and remove restrictions on people in those communities while restricting travel between the communities

It essentially moves some communities to Stage 0 and gives Govt flexibility to make them operational, while communities which are in advanced stage to get mitigated.
This also helps in rerouting medical resources.

Here is a graph understanding it.
First things first.. Test Test Test
Here is the graph, showing how testings is going on around the world
-- I will update my thoughts as they evolve. After all, if everything happens as we think, whats the fun 

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