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Covid19 mitigation strategy


As anticipated Lock downs aren’t a viable solution for long. Across the worlds, all Govt feel pressure to lift restrictions. Below is a strategy addressing it

End Goal: No Active cases of people infected with COVID19 in the community or everyone in the community are Recovered


Stage 1

A new infectious virus is identified outside community.
No known infection in the community (Measure: first case reported date)
All the travel from outside to the community is restricted (Measure: data of restrictions)
All incoming people are screened for virus infection and quarantined immediately (Measure: Screening / Testing strategy)

Stage 2: Contact tracing

People travel from outside the community, found to be Virus infected later on.
Contact tracing begins. All the people in contact with infected persons are quarantined for testing.
Contact tracing goes for people of indirect contact and Restrictions put in places where the infected person may have travelled with in the community

Stage 3: Isolation

First case of community spread of virus identified in the community
Except essential services, Entire community put in lock down to slow down virus spread in the community, avoid medical infrastructure getting over run and finally eliminate avoidable deaths (non-covid19 related).
Open up wide spread mass testing.

Stage 4: Economic relief

As societies are nonfunctional under lock down, need for lifting lock down arises.
Communities to be broken down into smaller entities like cities, villages etc.,
Idea is to identify communities that have no known infections and remove restrictions on people in those communities while restricting travel between the communities
Essentially it moves some communities to Stage 0 and gives Govt flexibility to make them operational, while communities which are in advanced stages to get mitigated.
This also helps in rerouting medical resources.

Since most of countries moved to Stage 3 and about to enter Stage 4,
Below is the graph identifying communities that have no know infections

https://www.google.com/covid19-map/

Google map is good. But its not clearly calling out which counties are good to be opened for business with county level restrictions. I ended up creating my own below.






Since Infection detection is as good as testing, below is country level data of how countries are doing with test for 1 million of population.



If you know, testing data sources for counties, please let me know in comments.

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